Another strong storm system will be heading toward the Southeast on Thursday after delivering a blow to Texas and the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Portions of east Texas and Louisiana could get hit the hardest. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of that area under an enhanced risk for severe t-storms including tornadoes.
By the time the system gets to here in the Southeast the risk for severe weather will have greatly diminished. That being said we could still see a few strong to severe storms here in north Georgia, but the threat is greater across middle and south Georgia.
The upper level forcing combined with the instability in the lower levels of the atmosphere support the possibility of damaging weather Wednesday in Texas and Louisiana.
Things are not the same as the storm system makes its way into the Southeast. The forcing aloft is still there, but the instability in the lower levels is greatly reduced.
Therefore don’t look for a large outbreak of severe weather here in north Georgia, but do be prepared for a few strong to severe storms that could be capable of damaging winds, large hail and a brief spin up tornado. While you’re at it download the FOX 5 Storm Team App for your smartphone. It’s FREE!!! Just follow the link below:
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A series of upper level disturbances will sweep across the Southeast through Wednesday bringing in waves of possible severe weather. Right now we have two disturbances that we can pick out on radar.
One is located just to our north across Kentucky and West Virginia. This disturbance originated Sunday over Minnesota!
The second disturbance is following the lead of the first. It too is originating over the upper Midwest.
By later tonight the first disturbance will be dissipating as it crosses the Blue Ridge Mountains into Virginia and North Carolina. The second disturbance will be alive and well as it pushes into Kentucky.
By Tuesday the first disturbance will have already dissipated, but the second disturbance will arrive here sometime around noon. This may spark our first round of possible severe weather.
And if that wasn’t enough there will be at least one more disturbance moving in out of Missouri and western Tennessee. This one will arrive by Tuesday evening helping to spark another round of strong to severe t-storms.
Heavy rain as well as strong to sever t-storms are possible on Sunday across north Georgia.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: North Georgia is under a marginal risk of severe t-storms on Sunday with a slight risk for central and south Georgia including Troup, Meriwether, Pike, Lamar and Upson county. The greatest threat will be damaging winds and possible tornadoes especially in the southern tier counties. The most likely part of the day to see severe weather will be during the afternoon.
HEAVY RAIN: Heavy rain will also move in throughout the day on Sunday with some areas picking up in excess of one to two inches of rain. Some localized flooding is possible so if you live in a flood prone area be on alert. The rain should start out as a steady light rain in the morning and then become heavier as the day progresses. The rain will gradually taper off during the evening.
THANKSGIVING: A few showers will be possible on Monday otherwise the rest of the week will be dry with highs mainly in the mid to upper 50s and low in the mid-50s. Expect sunny skies on Thanksgiving with a high of 58 and a low of 35. If you are planning on standing in line for Black Friday it will cold but dry. Temperatures overnight into Friday morning will drop into the mid-30s so bundle up!
Rain will begin to develop this weekend but not before some pretty nice weather Friday and Saturday.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Sunny skies will continue on Friday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Average high is 62 so that’s not too bad. On Saturday high clouds will arrive in advance of the storm developing in Texas. Expect a high overcast to develop at some point during the afternoon with the possibility of light rain developing at night. Highs on Saturday will be a bit cooler due to the cloud cover. Expect highs to be in the mid to upper 50s.
SUNDAY: The forecast for Sunday is proving to be quite difficult due to the uncertainty of the amount of instability in the atmosphere once the storm arrives. Right now it appears that the air over North Georgia will be stable enough to avoid a severe weather outbreak, but may be just enough unstable to support a few strong to severe storms. Either way we will have wet weather for most of the morning and afternoon with over an inch of rain likely. If severe weather does materialize it is not out of the question that a few tornadoes could develop.
This week has it all! First the record tying cold that we saw today and then a big warm-up with t-storms possible on Sunday.
BITTER COLD: Tonight’s low temperature will be even colder than last night with most areas in the upper teens to around 20. The record low for the date is 18 and that should be safe. Our forecast calls for 21. Earlier today we tied the record for the lowest high temperatures ever recorded for the date with a high of 37! Although tonight will technically be colder the wind will not be a factor, so wind chills temperatures will be much higher than last night. The temperature hit 32 at 6pm this evening and will not get above 32 until 10am Tuesday morning giving us 16 hours of sub-freezing temperatures!
WARM-UP: A warming trend will start on Tuesday and last through the weekend. Highs will gradually climb into the upper 40s on Tuesday, near 60 by Friday and in the lower 70s on Sunday. After Thursday morning’s low of 32 we shouldn’t be anywhere close to freezing for a while.
T-STORMS: Showers and t-storms will break out Saturday across Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas out ahead of a vigorous system that will move northeast spreading severe weather into Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee. Right now it appears that those states will get the brunt of the system with the best bet for severe weather on Saturday. On Sunday the system will lift quickly north into the Ohio Valley and although we will get t-storms we are hoping that they won’t be severe. Sunday is a long way off so anything could happen so we will keep an eye on it!
A large storm system will push into the Southeast bringing a threat of severe t-storms to all of North Georgia.
TIMING: A cold front will approach the Alabama, Georgia border Tuesday morning. A squall line will develop along that front and will move through North Georgia through the late morning and early afternoon. Showers may break out ahead of the front as well as behind the front, but the greatest threat of severe weather will come with the main squall line. By Tuesday evening the front will move east, but showers will still linger behind the system, even into Wednesday.
THREATS: Right now it appears that the greatest threat with the line of t-storms will be straight line winds in excess of 60 mph capable of producing damage. A few tornadoes are also possible along the squall line as it moves through.
SEVERE WEATHER PLAN: Make sure to have a severe weather plan to stay safe in the event of a tornado or severe winds in your area. Know where to go to be safe in your house or apartment. If you have a smart phone download the fox5stormteam app to keep up on the latest watches and warnings and to also track the storms on FOX 5 Live Vipir.