NOVEMBER AND SEVERE WEATHER

Just about every November here in the south we invariably see a round or two of severe weather from thunderstorms forming along strong cold fronts sweeping in from the north. It’s a time of the year similar to spring, where the atmosphere is in turmoil with the introduction of cold air from the north colliding with leftover warm air here in the south. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the main culprit during severe weather’s “Second Season”.  In fact last November 18th. tornadoes developed in Coweta, DeKalb and Fulton counties. Although they were small EF1 & EF0 tornadoes they still caused some minor damage.

Next week we could be dealing with one of those scenarios where a strong cold front, combined with a potent upper level system, collides with warm air already in place. The GFS model is hinting at a very strong vortex aloft sweeping in sometime next Thursday the 10th.

500z_f228_bg_us

This combined with a strong cold front at the surface could produce damaging thunderstorms from Mississippi to here in Georgia next Wednesday and Thursday. The 00z 6 hour precip depiction from the GFS Operational indicates a strong line of thunderstorms moving in next Thursday evening.

gfs_op_apcp_f228_se

Hopefully this will change, and we will come out with a gentler solution, but just in case we will be watching for the possibility of severe weather closely.

NOVEMBER TO START OFF WARM BUT WILL IT STAY THAT WAY?

One thing for sure is that November will start off well above normal with record highs possible during the first week. Highs this weekend will soar back into the low 80s, and those type of readings should stay with us at least through the following weekend. But will it last through the rest of the month? After all it is November, and it should be cooling off, right?

Well I decided to look back through the record books at previous Novembers going back to 2000. Of the previous 16 Novembers, 7 of them were above normal (2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2011, 2015). The warmest year was 2001 checking in with an average overall temperature of 59.9 compared to the normal of 54.0. From the graph below you can see that most of the month stayed above normal. It was very consistent.

nov-2001

Many months started out very warm only to end up below normal in the end. 2000 is a perfect example where the month began very warm with a high of 80 on the 1st, and then back to back records of 81 on the 2nd and 3rd only to start a slide toward cooler temperatures. That month ended up with an overall average temperature of 51 compared to the normal of 54!

nov-2000

You can see by the graph above how the first three days of 2000 started off much warmer than the rest. Along with the cooler weather that year it was also wetter than average with over 5 inches of rain recorded!