The recent rain from this past weekend will undoubtedly help with the drought conditions across north Georgia. Most locations saw between one and two inches of rain with two to three inches in isolated spots.
Leading into this past weekend forty six percent of the state was classified as being in a moderate drought, with thirty eight percent being abnormally dry. Nine percent had severe drought with another three and a half percent in the extreme category. None of the state was classified in the exceptional category, while almost three percent had no drought at all.
Lots of heavy rain fell across the mountains where extreme drought remained as of last week. Hopefully when the new numbers are released tomorrow we will see that area of red (extreme drought) shrink!
Just about every November here in the south we invariably see a round or two of severe weather from thunderstorms forming along strong cold fronts sweeping in from the north. It’s a time of the year similar to spring, where the atmosphere is in turmoil with the introduction of cold air from the north colliding with leftover warm air here in the south. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the main culprit during severe weather’s “Second Season”. In fact last November 18th. tornadoes developed in Coweta, DeKalb and Fulton counties. Although they were small EF1 & EF0 tornadoes they still caused some minor damage.
Next week we could be dealing with one of those scenarios where a strong cold front, combined with a potent upper level system, collides with warm air already in place. The GFS model is hinting at a very strong vortex aloft sweeping in sometime next Thursday the 10th.
This combined with a strong cold front at the surface could produce damaging thunderstorms from Mississippi to here in Georgia next Wednesday and Thursday. The 00z 6 hour precip depiction from the GFS Operational indicates a strong line of thunderstorms moving in next Thursday evening.
Hopefully this will change, and we will come out with a gentler solution, but just in case we will be watching for the possibility of severe weather closely.
After a beautiful weekend showers and t-showers will return to metro Atlanta throughout the day on Monday. A strong cold front will move through the southeast Monday and Tuesday bringing strong gusty winds and heavy downpours, but the threat of severe weather will more likely in Alabama and Mississippi.
TIMING: The showers and t-showers will move into west Georgia around noon and progress eastward throughout the day. The heaviest weather will move through in the late evening mainly south of Atlanta to Macon. Although instability levels are marginal a few severe storms could develop. The main threat would be strong gusty winds and heavy downpours that could cause minor flooding. The showers and t-showers will end overnight and into early Tuesday morning and then the colder air arrives.
COOL DOWN: After the cold front moves through Tuesday much cooler air will move in. Highs will only be in the low to mid 60s Wednesday with overnight lows on Thursday in the mid to upper 30s! Some attention may be needed to tender plants Thursday morning. Another shot of cold air arrives Friday in the form of a cold air wedge that will keep highs in the upper 50s along with light rain and drizzle.