Turning Cold Tonight

Steve Milone FOX5

Well, I figure my other buddies are giving this blog thing a whirl … time to jump in myself.  The big story tonight is going to be the much colder temps.  We actually came into today with a pretty good run of warmer weather – the last 10 days were all above 60 degrees.  Today we fell flat – only hit 46 this afternoon.  Setting up for a cold night tonight … here are the lows across the region:

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We only get back to 50 tomorrow.  But, hang in there.  Things improve nicely by the weekend.  We’re back to the 60’s Saturday … could hit 70 in spots on Sunday.  But, another one of those cold snaps looks possible by the middle of next week.  So, the ups and downs will continue as we begin March.  The good news, though, is that we’ll have a lot more ups now as…

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Climatological forecast for March-May

The Climate Prediction Center has issued the 3 month forecast for March through May and if you are like me and are longing for some warmer temperatures then this is good news. These types of forecasts are tricky business having to take into account climatology and certain environmental factors like El Nino that can influence long-range weather patterns. With that being said here is a look at the temperature forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-02-26 at 4.07.59 PMHere in the southeast there is moderate confidence that temperatures will be above normal with the highest confidence of above normal temperatures in the Southwest, California and Florida. The most likely area for below normal temperatures is across the Great Lakes and Minnesota and parts of North Dakota.

The precipitation forecast shows less confidence in the above and below categories, with the best chance for wet weather just to our north in central and western Kentucky. The dreaded equal chances category is forecast for us here in Georgia. Take this all with a grain of salt and as we like to say in the TV business stay tuned!

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Another blast of cold air!

Here we go again. Another blast of cold air on the way for today through Friday before we finally see some milder air. Lows overnight will drop into the mid to upper 20s in and near Atlanta with lows in the lower 20s across the north Georgia Mountains.

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Now to make things worse the winds overnight will still be on the order of 10-15 mph producing wind chill factors in the teens and single digits.

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By the weekend warmer temperatures will return to the southeast with highs in the mid 60s by Sunday and upper 60s by Monday. A cold front will bring showers and t-showers Monday, and then another cold blast next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday similar to the one we are having now. With regards to this winter Yogi Berra summed it up the best: “It ain’t over till it’s over”.

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Timeline on potential wintry mix Wednesday morning

Here is a look at what we can expect early Wednesday morning across north Georgia. Remember that whatever falls will be light and where snow or sleet mixes in it should melt on contact. By 5am some of the light rain may start to mix with sleet or snow from just north of Canton to Rome to Cedartown.

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As we look at 6am the area of wintry mix will continue northwest of Atlanta. Temperatures will remain above freezing so what falls will melt on contact.

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Remember that while this is occurring there could be light snow in the higher elevations of the north Georgia Mountains that is not showing up on our computer model. Temperatures in the mountains will be close to freezing so some of the snow could stick on grassy surfaces and briefly on roadways. Accumulations of less than a half-inch are possible. As the morning progresses temperatures will rise into the upper 30s so any snow will melt.

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The sleet/snow will end quickly leaving an area of rain just south and east of Atlanta by 7am and that rain will continue to move south and east and gradually end throughout the morning. By afternoon look for mostly cloudy skies and highs only in the mid to upper 40s.

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Just how much rain for late Tuesday/early Wednesday?

The answer: not much! Here is a look at the 18z NAM run valid 1am Wednesday. Most of the rain stays well to our west while the cold air remains in Tennessee. If anything we might see a patch or two of light rain overnight.jeff1

By 10am we see rain across most of central Georgia extending just north to I-20. This should amount to a tenth of an inch or less. Notice how the colder air (blue line) has slipped south into the north Georgia Mountains. A lack of moisture there should prevent any snow from developing although some flurries/light snow is possible in the highest of elevations.

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The rain will end by noon with windy and colder conditions building in from the northwest. By Thursday cold, dry air will allow temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 20s with highs during the day in the low 50s. By the weekend we will recover back into the lower 60s by Sunday.

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Colder weather to return by midweek!

The official start of spring isn’t until March 20th so it shouldn’t be a surprise that colder air will return this week. After a beautiful weekend that saw highs in the mid to upper 60s it looks like highs will drop into the mid to upper 40s on Wednesday with wind chills in the 30s! But not so fast….the mild air will remain in place at least through Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
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By late Tuesday moisture will move in from the west while the colder air starts to slip south. For right now it doesn’t look like much moisture will be moving into north Georgia with generally less than a quarter of an inch of rain. In the north Georgia Mountains the moisture may fall as a mix of light rain, sleet and snow generally above 1500 feet. Little to no accumulation will develop so roads should be fine Wednesday morning.

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Along with the big change in daytime highs some very cold nights will return as well. Look for lows to drop into the 20s Thursday morning, and near freezing Friday morning. If the recent warm weather gave you the gardening bug and you did some of your spring planting, you may have to cover the plants to protect them from the freeze. By the weekend the temperatures will warm back into the 50s and 60s with a good chance of rain by Saturday.

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